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© Economic History Sodety 1993. Published by BlackweU Publishers, ¡08 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 ¡JF, UK ond 238 Main Street,
Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
Economic History Review, XLVi, 2(1993), PP- 369-378
The role of marital fertility in Irish
population history y iJSO-1840^
By JONA SCHELLEKENS
T
he peculiarities of Irish population history continue to arouse interest
and controversy. One problem concerns the cause ofthe rapid population
growth in the second half of the eighteenth century and the first decades
of the nineteenth. Irish population data are of such poor quality that several
hypotheses can be plausibly advanced. A rise in levels of nuptiality and a
decline in mortality have both been suggested as explanations. To these
Mokyr and 0 Grada have more recently added the possibility of a rise in
marital fertihty. In their survey of Irish population history during the period
1700-1850 they note that the relatively high Irish birth rate in 1840 is
explained principally by a high level of marital fertility compared with other
west European countries. Nuptiality levels resembled those elsewhere in
western Europe. They concluded that
while the propensity to marry probably played a major role in Irish population
growth in the eighteenth century as Connell postulated, the true picture is more
complex. Marital fertility was exceptionally high in Ireland in 1840, and it seems
at least likely that this variable played an equally important role in the century
prior to the Great Famine.^
Mokyr and 0 Grada also reviewed a list of possible causes of the relatively
high marital fertility in pre-Famine Ireland. They mentioned ‘higher
fecundity, social or religious taboos on contraception, and a desire for large
famihes’ as possible causes.^
This note aims to show that the employment of a logical framework
imposed by demographic constraints may limit the number of possible
solutions to questions about the causes of Irish population growth and
relatively high marital fertihty. For instance, using stable population theory
and a fertility model, it can be shown that a rise in marital fertihty is
unlikely to explain the whole increase in the growth rate in Ireland.
Studies of the determinants of marital fertility suggest that only two
proximate determinants’* of marital fertility need to be considet;ed in this
context. Using additional information supplied by Mokyr and Ó Grada, I
shall suggest that the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible period,
which is strongly infiuenced by breastfeeding patterns, was the more likely
cause of a rise in marital fertility. I shall also speculate on the cause of
change in breastfeeding patterns in Ireland during the eighteenth century.
‘ The helpful suggestions of two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.
^ Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developments’, p. 480.
3 Ibid., p. 481.
” The proximate determinants of fertihty are the biological and behavioural factors through which
social, economic, and environmental variables affect fertility.
369
370
JONA SCHELLEKENS
I
In this section I shall review the proximate determinants which might
plausibly account for the relatively high marital fertility in Ireland, assuming
that marital fertility and infant mortality were indeed relatively high, as
Mokyr and Ó Grada suggested.^ My discussion is based on information
supplied by those scholars, and on the results of studies of the proximate
determinants in other societies, especially in pre-industrial Europe.
An instructive study by Wilson of the proximate determinants of marital
fertility in England during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries attempted
to explain the low level of English marital fertility compared with other
north-west European societies.* Since birth control was little practised in
England (as elsewhere in north-west Europe), there remain only four possible
explanations of the difference: physiological sterility; the duration of the
non-susceptible period; fecundability (the probability that a woman conceives
in one menstrual cycle when at risk of doing so); and foetal mortality.
Family reconstitution studies cannot provide information on foetal mortality.
However, studies of spontaneous abortion in contemporary developing and
developed countries suggest that the level of foetal mortality does not vary
greatly among populations.^ Hence, foetal mortality is unlikely to explain
the relatively low English marital fertility. Since Wilson did not find any
significant differences between England and other historical populations in
the level of physiological sterility, there remain two possibilities: fecundability
and the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible period. The fecundability
of a population is directly dependent on the frequency of intercourse.^
Wilson found that fecundability in England was in the low to medium part
of the European range. Most of the difference in the marital fertility rate
between England and other European societies, however, seems to have
been caused by differences in the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible
period, which is mostly determined by breastfeeding practices. Wilson
therefore suggested that breastfeeding practices were responsible for the
relatively low marital fertility rate in England.
In a study of 14 German villages, Knodel and Wilson found that marital
fertility rose during the nineteenth century, as the result of an increase in
fecundability, and possibly also of a decrease in the non-susceptible period
following birth. They found no evidence of a change in sterility.^
Thus studies of other societies suggest that we need to consider only two
‘ Teitelbaum, British fertility decline, p. 121, estimated marital fertility in 1871 in Ireland to have
been much lower than the level in 1840 suggested by Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developments’, p, 479,
Teitelbaum suggested that Coale’s marital fertility index Ig equalled 0,714 in 1871, while Mokyr and
Ó Grada suggested a value of 0,82 for 1840, As one figure refers to the pre-Famine and the other to
the post-Famine period such differences may not be impossible. Recently Ó Grada has suggested that
Teitelbaum’s estimates of marital fertility in 1871 are too low. He estimated Ig in 1881 to have equalled
about 0,82: Ó Grada, ‘New evidence’. For the computation of the pre-Famine value of I^ see Mokyr,
Why Ireland starved.
‘• Wilson, ‘The proximate determinants of marital fertility’,
‘ Bongaarts and Potter, Fertility, biology, and behavior, p. 40,
“Ibid,, p, 31,
‘ Knodel and Wilson, ‘The secular increase in fecundity’,
© Economic History Society 1993
MARITAL FERTILITY IN IRELAND, I75O-184O
37I
proximate determinants of the relatively high marital fertility in Ireland:
fecundability and the duration of the post-partum non-susceptible period.
Which of these is the more likely explanation? If infant mortality was
indeed relatively high as suggested by Mokyr,’° the duration of the postpartum non-susceptible period is the more likely alternative. This in turn
probably implies a shorter duration or a lower intensity of breastfeeding.
Given the lack of hygienic and nutritious alternatives to breast milk, a
limited duration of breastfeeding would have led to relatively high rates of
infant mortality.” For example, in the 14 German villages studied by
Knodel, villages practising earlier weaning tended to have relatively high
levels of infant mortality, although later in childhood mortality differences
between the villages were slight. ^^
Differences in coital frequencies—a major determinant of fecundability
differentials—are not known to have a comparable effect on infant mortality.
Since Mokyr and Ó Grada noted that infant mortality in Ireland was higher
than that in most other west European countries, while child mortality was
apparently more like that elsewhere in western Europe,’^ I suspect that
Irish breastfeeding patterns were the main reason for the relatively high
marital fertility in 1840.
It might seem equally plausible to suppose that relatively high infant
mortality was one of the major causes of high marital fertility, since following
the death of an infant breastfeeding is discontinued and ovulation is likely
to be resumed sooner. It can be shown, however, that even a substantial
increase in infant mortality would have only a relatively small effect on
marital fertility.’*
Whether relatively high fecundability or a short non-susceptible period
explains the relatively high marital fertility may remain debatable. Low
levels of contraception, whether caused by social or religious taboos or by
a desire for large families, however, are unlikely to explain the relatively
high marital fertility, since levels of contraception were also very low in the
rest of western Europe (with the exception of France) before the second
half of the nineteenth century. ^^
II
What social, economic, or environmental variables may serve to explain
changes in Irish breastfeeding patterns (on the assumption that they were
mainly responsible for the relatively high marital fertility)? This section is
speculative and my conclusion is very dependent on the regression analyses
of marital fertility rates reported by Mokyr.’^ In these regressions various
“> Mokyr, Why Ireland starved, pp. 72-5.
” Wilson, ‘The proximate determinants of marital fertility’, p. 227.
‘^ Knodel, Demographic behavior, pp. 48-9.
” Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developments’, p. 484. Ó Grada, Ireland before and after the Famine,
pp. 37-8, argues that child mortahty in Ireland was low before the Famine.
‘•’ Lesthaeghe, ‘The breast-feeding hypothesis’.
” See, for example, Knodel, ‘Demographic transitions’, and Wilson, ‘Natural fertility’.
“* Mokyr, Why Ireland starved, tab. 3.12.
© Economic History Society 1993
372
JONA SCHELLEKENS
indices of potato dependency were among the few variables which seemed
to affect marital fertility.’^
I shall employ an analytic framework proposed by Nag, who suggested
that the duration and intensity of breastfeeding depend on three main
factors: (i) the perception of parents and the community of what benefits
a child; (2) the availability of breast milk substitutes and the parents’ ability
to acquire them; and (3) the convenience of breastfeeding for the mother.’^
Nag adds that the convenience of breastfeeding largely depends on the
nature and location of the work mothers do, as well as the sense of modesty
that may prevent them from exposing their breasts.
Parents’ perception of what benefits a child and a sense of modesty are
not persuasive possibilities. These factors are usually associated with changes
in breastfeeding in the twentieth century, but not so much in the past.
Hence we need to look at the substitutes for breast milk and at women’s
work.
Knodel and Wilson found some evidence for a decrease in breastfeeding
during the nineteenth century in 14 German villages. They speculated that
an increased workload for women may have reduced the frequency and
duration of breastfeeding.’^ An increased demand for female labour, including
that of married women, was involved in the cultivation of potatoes, which
often requires more labour input from women and children than growing
wheat or rye.^° Such a change in the nature or location of the work mothers
do may necessitate the use of supplements for infant feeding. Boiled potato,
mashed with milk or butter, or cooked into a thick soup, could have
provided an easily prepared and digestible supplement for infant feeding.^’
The provision of dietary supplements to a nursing infant shortens the nonsusceptible period, because the intensity of breastfeeding declines.•^^ A
reduction in the frequency and length of breastfeeding as a result of the
cultivation of potatoes is plausible in the case of Ireland, in view of the
relationship between potato dependency and marital fertility already noted
in Mokyr’s regression analyses.^’
Other explanations should, of course, be considered. Mokyr and Ó Grada
suggested that ‘As far as fecundity is concerned, the high nutritional value
of the potato diet might have played a significant role’.^”* Recent research,
however, has suggested that nutrition does not have a significant effect on
fecundity. Moderate chronic malnutrition has little effect on the risk of a
spontaneous abortion,^^ and neither is maternal nutrition likely to be a
critical factor determining the length of the post-partum non-susceptible
period.•^^ An increase in the workload of women as a result ot-potato
” Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developments’, p. 481.
‘* Nag, ‘Breastfeeding and sexual behavior’, p. 164.
” Knodel and Wilson, ‘The secular increase in fecundity’, p. 79.
^° Schellekens, ‘Socio-economic determinants of marital fertility’, p. 53.
^’ Netting, Balancing on an alp.
^^ Bongaarts and Potter, Fertility, biology, and behavior, pp. 27-8.
” Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developments’, p. 481.
” Ibid.
” Bongaarts and Potter, Fertility, biology, and behavior, pp. 14-7.
^^ Gray, ‘The impact of health and nutrition’, p. 155.
© Economic History Society 1993
MARITAL FERTILITY IN IRELAND, I75O-184O
373
cultivation is thus a more likely explanation of the relatively high marital
fertility in Ireland than improved nutritional status.-^^
III
Stable population theory and a fertility model suggest that a rise in marital
fertility alone is unlikely to explain most of the rise in growth rates after
1750.
Average annual growth rates in Ireland in the period 1750-1845 were
relatively high compared with the rest of Europe. The data fail to register
any serious growth before the 1750s. Between 1750 and 1820 population
grew at a rapid rate, averaging between 1.6 and 1.7 per cent annually.^*
Could a rise in marital fertility explain a rise in growth rates of this
magnitude? Models of stable populations suggest that, assuming a constant
female life expectancy at birth of 40 years during the eighteenth century, a
rise in the gross reproduction rate of almost 0.9 female births or a rise in
the total fertility rate^’ of almost 1.8 births would have been required in
order to raise growth rates from 0 to 1.5 per cent (see table i). The lower
life expectancy at birth, the higher would be the number of additional births
required.
Table i.
Population growth rates implied by combinations of fertility and
mortality
Fertility
Life expectancy at
birth
(gross reproduction rate)
I.SO
40
-1.85
-1.25
-0.76
-0.36
45
-O.OI
25
30
35
1-75
-1.31
-0.71
-0.23
0.18
0.53
2.00
-0.85
-0.25
0.25
0.65
1.01
2.2s
-0.43
0.17
0.66
1.07
1.43
2.S0
-0.06
0.55
1.04
1.45
1.80
3.00
0.59
1.20
1.69
2.II
2.46
3 SO
1.15
1.76
2.25
2.67
3.03
Notes artd sources: Rates are per 100 population and based on female life tables in Coale and Demeny, Regional model
life tables, model West. Values assume a mean age at childbearing of 29 years. This may be unrealistic for Ireland.
However, a more realistic value of around 31 would reduce rates by only about 10 per cent.
Life expectancy in Ireland before the period of rapid population growth
was probably less than 40. Two important factors influencing mortality
levels are population density and the standard of living. Woods has estimated,
for instance, that life expectancy at birth in urban areas in England and
Wales in 1811 was between 30 and 32 years, whereas in rural areas it was
41.^° Thus, given the lower urbanization of Ireland a life expectancy at
birth of about 40 would seem plausible. Standards of living, however, also
” Cf. Ross, ‘Potatoes, populatioti and the Irish Fatnine’, p. 207.
^’ Mokyr and Ó Grada, ‘New developtnents’, p. 475.
^’ The gross reproduction rate is the number of live fetnale births a wotnan who lives at least to the
age of 50 is expected to have. The total fertility rate is the number of live births a woman who lives
at least to the age of 50 is expected to have. It can be seen that the latter figure is slightly more than
twice the former.
‘” Woods, ‘The effects of population redistribution’.
© Economic History Society 1993
374
JONA SCHELLEKENS
affected mortality levels. Finlay, for instance, found in a study of the parish
of Cartmel in Cumbria during the period 1600-1750 that socio-economic
group was one of the most important factors influencing mortahty levels.^’
A study of two eighteenth-century villages in the Netherlands also showed
significant socio-economic differentials in mortahty. The life expectancy at
birth of farmers’ children in these villages was estimated to have been about
45 years, compared with 38 for children of cottagers and 31 for those of
agricultural labourers.^^ Since, there were differences in standards of living
between countries, it is not unlikely that there were also differences in
mortality levels. The relatively frequent subsistence crises in the first half
of the eighteenth century, before the period of rapid population growth,
seem to suggest a low standard of hving in Ireland. Hence, life expectancy
at birth in Ireland may have been below that in rural areas of the much
wealthier England. Irish life expectancy at birth was perhaps closer to that
found in France and rural Germany, which in the eighteenth century has
been estimated at below 35 and between 35 and 37.5 respectively.^^
If life expectancy at birth was about 35 years before the period of rapid
population growth, and remained stable at that level, an increase of two
births per woman would have been required in order to raise growth rates
from o to 1.5 per cent (see table i). Such a large increase is not easy to
credit. Estimates of the number of months of post-partum infecundabihty
in historical Europe range from 4.9 to 12.7 months.^’* Even if the duration
of the post-partum non-susceptible period in Ireland had dechned from,
say, about 12 to six months, an increase of two births would probably not
have occurred.
If we assume nuptiality and fecundability levels to have been close to the
upper extremes witnessed in western Europe, and if we assume the
probability of dying before the age of one was 0.20 (a level close to the one
Mokyr suggested for 1840), a dechne from 12 to six months in the postpartum non-susceptible period would have implied a rise in the total fertihty
rate of about 1.6 births (see table 2). A dechne in breastfeeding, however,
probably implied a rise in infant mortahty. If we add the assumption that
the probabihty of dying before the age of one dqo) was at the relatively low
level of 0.15 before the period of rapid population growth and rose to a
level of 0.20, the total fertility rate would have risen by 1.7 births. This
figure is not far from the two births needed to raise the growth rate by
about 1.5 per cent, but is a maximum estimate of the rise in the total
fertihty rate, assuming a very low level of infant mortality before the period
” Finlay, ‘Differential child mortality’, p. 76.
^^ Schellekens, ‘Monahty and socio-economic status’, tab. i. Unlike studies of mortality in rural
England and the Netherlands, studies of mortaUty in rural France and Germany did not reveal any
significant socio-economic differentials in mortahty. This inconsistency across countries may be related
to the fact that England and the Netherlands were probably the wealthiest countries in the eighteenth
century. For rural German and French mortality differentials see respectively Knodel, Demographic
behavior in the past, and Derouet, ‘Une démographie différentielle’.
” For mortahty estimates of France see Wrigley and Schofield, Population history, p. 246. For
estimates of life expectancies in eighteenth-century rural Germany see Knodel, Demographic behavior in
the past, tab. 3.3.
‘•* Bongaarts and Potter, Fertility, biology, and behavior, p. 89.
© Economic History Society 1993
MARITAL FERTILITY IN IRELAND, I75O-184O
375
Table 2. Total fertility rates implied by combinations of the duration of postpartum amenorrhoea (ppa), fecundability (f ), nuptiality level and the probability
of dying before the age …
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